Eli Manning Hall of Fame Quarterback?

Eli Manning, Hall of Famer?  I know that name and that term simply don’t go together.  Late last season, after a five interception game against San Francisco, some writer actually suggested it might be time for the Giants to “think about the future” and recommended they draft Jameis Winston in the 2015 draft.   Oddly, that writer apparently hadn’t been watching Jameis, who had been throwing interceptions like he meant it much of the season.  More to the point, that writer obviously hadn’t actually taken the few minutes it takes to track down Manning’s numbers.  The numbers indicate Eli Manning should be in the Hall of Fame when he finishes.  Allow me to elucidate.

Assuming Manning plays four more years (after 2015), he will end his career in the top 10 (and very likely top 5) in the following statistical categories and every single quarterback ahead of him is either already in the Hall of Fame or a sure fire Hall of Famer: career touchdowns (he’ll be around 380); career yardage (he’ll be around 54,000); career completions (he’ll be around 4,700); career game winning drives (he’ll be around 44); career fourth quarter comebacks (he’ll be around 37); career consecutive starts by a quarterback (he’ll be around 226, behind only Favre).  Right now the only non-Hall of Fame quarterbacks ahead of him in any of these categories are Vinny Testaverde and Drew Bledsoe and Eli will pass both of them by late 2016 or early 2017 in any category he’s behind them.

Oh, yeah, he’s played in two Super Bowls, was on the winning side both times, and was the MVP both times.  And, by the way, his playoff work is phenomenal.  Here’s a list of quarterbacks who CANNOT say the same:  Peyton Manning, Favre, Brees, Namath, Fouts, Marino, Tarkenton, Kelly, Moon, Unitas, Dawson, Young, Jurgensen, Warner.  All of these quarterbacks are in the Hall of Fame or almost certainly will be (Warner being the one close call) yet none of them won two Super Bowls.***UPDATE*** Peyton Manning was on the Super Bowl winning Broncos team this year, so he now has 2 wins.  BUT he was already a hall of fame guy in everyone's mind, anyway, so it doesn't make that much difference to my argument.

Here’s my prediction: Eli plays five more years.  He ends up in at least the top eight and probably top five all-time in all the statistical categories I noted above.  He’ll prove to have been one of the most durable and reliable quarterbacks in NFL history.  He’ll have won close to 20 playoff games, at least two Super Bowls, been a Pro Bowl selection several times and kept his nose clean throughout.  He will retire as a top notch ambassador for the NFL.

Yet, after he retires there will be all kinds of massive hand-wringing by so-called “experts” (by “experts” I mostly mean people at ESPN, 98% of whom are not Hall of Famers) about whether he’s “really a hall of famer.”  They’ll trot out excuses like his propensity for bad games once in a while (Hmmm, you mean like brother Peyton’s recent 5/20 performance against the Chiefs, where he also threw four interceptions?).  They’ll say he wasn’t a great thrower of the ball (you mean like Sonny Jurgenson – yeah he always, I mean always, threw the tightest spirals around – NOT).  Then you’ll hear the “it’s not all about the numbers” argument (but that fails to explain how everyone with the kind of numbers we’re talking about is either in or will be in the Hall of Fame).

Why, then, does Eli seem like such a hard sell?  Because he is just too dad gum ordinary.  He lacks Favre’s pizzazz, or Peyton’s ridiculous numbers, or Brady’s machine like quality, or Montana’s wit, or Marino’s release, or Namath’s persona . . . the list could go on.  It shouldn’t be this hard to sell a two time Super Bowl winning quarterback with the kind of numbers he’ll have as a Hall of Famer.

Manning’s like the guy who works at the office who consistently shows up, works hard, even when he is sometimes a bit off, never complains, has significant moments of absolute brilliance, followed by long spans of ordinary but diligent and effective, and never gets in any trouble in or out of the office.  Sometimes you hardly notice he’s there because he never talks about how great his ideas are or how hard and long he works.  Yet, when he’s gone, you suddenly realize this guy was a rock.  You realize you were so much better off having him there working with you.  He really was a great guy and made a huge difference to the company.  That will be Eli Manning.  But those guys don’t get awards or honors.  They get a pat on the back and a kick out the door.

Here’s to hoping, if Eli Manning has the kind of career he’s poised to wrap up, that it doesn’t end that way.