Since 1979 one eight seed, and two six seeds have won the
NCAA tournament. That means that 88% of
the time, the winner has been a four seed or higher (interestingly, no five seed
has won during that time). So who cares
whether the A-10 has six teams in the tournament or not? Only two are five seeds – VCU and St. Louis –
the rest don’t matter (neither VCU nor St Louis likely matter, either). SMU didn’t get in? Cry me a river – SMU wasn’t going to win, anyway because SMU would not have
been a four seed or higher.
ESPN and
other media outlets make gazillions of dollars over-analyzing all this
nonsense, when the simple reality is that the Weber States, the Woffords, the
Harvards, and the Manhattans simply are not going to win. Is it possible? Sure, and Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama
will be having a beer at the Rose Garden tomorrow to talk about Vlad bailing
out of Crimea. Yes, it’s possible, but
history says otherwise: no team below an
eight seed has even played in a national championship game since 1979, let
alone won the thing. We know the odds
are that Florida, Virginia, Wichita State or Arizona is the likely winner (one
seeds win the thing 60 percent of the time).
This doesn’t mean it isn’t fun to watch the inevitable upsets that
happen during the first round but we don’t need Seth Greenberg obsessing over
ball screen defense, or Jay Bilas acting as if the world will collapse if the
ACC doesn’t get a number one seed. (Seth is looking pretty good right now,
though, after Virginia Tech fired his replacement).
I live in
Kentucky where it is virtual heresy for me to suggest basketball doesn’t
matter. Don’t get me wrong. I am not knocking sports. I’ve always been a fan. Played lots of playground football, baseball,
basketball, foursquare, you name it, when I was a kid – if there was a ball
handy, I was in. I like the
team-building that happens in team sports.
I like the discipline that both team and individual sports require. I admire the dedication folks give to honing
the physical and mental toughness it takes to play a sport well. What I have come to dislike intensely is that we have become obsessed to the point that March Madness really is
just that: madness.
I mentioned
the statistics above so we could get some perspective. Whether people like it or want to admit it,
the NCAA selection committee does a pretty good job of getting this thing
right. The top four seeds comprise 91%
of the tournament winners over the past 35 years (32 out of 35) and have made
up almost 83% of the final four teams over the past 35 years. Realistically, the tournament could be just
the top 16 teams every year and the results would be almost the same.
Why do we
obsess, then? We are born worshipers. We love to find an altar
where we can bow down and lay our alms. So
we gather with others, we put on our jersey, colors, whatever, we have a meal,
we watch the game. We’re up, we’re
down. We cry if our team loses, maybe we
cry if our team wins. We really
engage. For a moment we think we’re part
of something, even if only by extension.
But then,
perspective. The day after comes, win or
lose. We’re back to the job, back to
school. Within a day or two life sets in
and even the glory of the team having won starts to fade. Who was it that hit that last second buzzer
beater in the second game, anyway?
Within a week or two whatever investment we made has lost its effect.
Life is back to normal and our efforts have made no difference. The temporary emotion was just that,
temporary. Our worship has not brought
us satisfaction; if anything, there is
an emptiness where the March Madness was.
Seth and Jay can’t help us now.
We’ll have to fill ourselves up again with something else. Football is so far off – no one really
watches MLB . . . what then?
When we
find our satisfaction in such things, we find ourselves leaping from event to
event, from happening to happening, looking, searching, but never really
finding a way to fill ourselves up with something bigger than us. We want to find that something, but our
efforts simply seem to fail. So we plug
into our job even more, we plug into our hobby even more. Still, it can’t seem to fix what ails
us. It won’t.
We worship
because we were made that way by a perfectly holy and righteous God who must
demand our worship of Him or find Himself guilty of idolatry. Our efforts to worship other things
inevitably lead to a dead end. That is
why March Madness is truly mad. The
irony is that even for most of the players winning the tournament won’t matter
in any significant way within a very short time. Yes, “no one can take it away” but what would
they be taking, anyway? A temporary euphoria? Every single player, every single coach,
every single manager, every single towel boy will fall off the euphoria mountain
at some point within a very short time.
What will be left? Only a memory.
You see, we
try to fill our lives up with this stuff because we are convinced, sometimes by
ESPN, sometimes by our friends, most often by ourselves, that if we just had
this feeling, or that something that our lives would be complete. It’s madness.
We were created to worship by a God who cares about what we
worship. So who is more rational: the
one who worships at a temporary, man-made altar which will lose its power
almost as soon as it’s put up, or the one who worships the almighty creator of
the universe whose power never ends?
Yes, enjoy
the NCAA tournament for the sheer joy of
watching young men working hard and having fun.
Shout when your team wins. Shed a
brief tear when your 14 seed loses (as they inevitably will). But put it in perspective. Despite Seth Greenberg’s insistence, ball
screen defense just won’t matter in eternity.
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